Saturday, March 9, 2013

Fib extension calling for an end to the rally

A few months ago, I presented my research into Fib Extensions [here] and how I found 127.2 and 161.8 extensions to be pervasive in the direction of the trend. A point to note is that more often than not, the next impulse in the direction of the trend peaks/ends at 127.2 or 161.8 fib extension of the previous wave.

In the chart below, I identify 4 waves in the direction of trend marked A, B, C and recently D. You can clearly see that B ends at 127.2 fib extension of A. That C ends at 127.2 fib extension of B. Will D end at the 127.2 fib extension of C ? Will SPX turn back after hitting 1583 and setting an all time high?

Earlier today, I pointed out [here] the megaphone pattern is asking for SPX to turn back from slightly below 1600.  This coupled with 161.8 extension and 127.2 extension confluence as shown in the chart below, could be indicating that we are close to end of this rally. We should set an all time high as DJIA30 has already done. SPX typically follows DJIA.


  1. Interesting analysis. Could be sell in May and go away.

    1. Yeah. That is what it is looking like, we may see a rally in April that will fail to take the highs (wave 2) before some serious selling in May.