Saturday, August 25, 2012

Bold Predictions

Long time ago, I gave up my abilities to predict anything but what my most short-term indicators suggested. I am talking in minutes here.

Once in a while I do like to venture into the big 'prediction' world where the time horizon stretches into hours or maybe even days. I have a post on my thoughts on a very long (weekly/yearly) time horizon.

This weekend, I have a chart that spans 1 day of moves for SPY. A few things lined up that made me bold enough to put this chart out.
1. I use a special indicator that is indicating a downward pressure on the daily SPY chart but enough volatility/chop for 2-3 days.
2. The fib ratios presented in the chart occur more frequently in my recollection. ABC moves typically have 23.6, 76.4 and 61.8 fib relationships amongst various waves, especially in the form I show.
3. There is a good setup of Wolfe wave which has become my favorite
4. The Wolfe wave jives with the fib ratios of ABC moves.
5. AAPL got awarded a billion dollars after market close on Friday that should bouy the market at least till the open.
6. Institutions seem to want to sell as much as they can without bringing the prices down. I guess they will sell into the AAPL euphoria.

Now, none of this may come true and Monday morning will be a tell. This chart is almost ouf the window if we go lower than where I have marked 4 by quite a bit. But there is a chance so here goes.

Bold Predictions:
1. We gap up Monday to the 61.8 fib retrace of 8/21 to 8/23 down move labelled as WXY. This area is in blue. It also happens to be a great spot for the 5 of the Wolfe wave. I am guessing we will be there in the early part of the day. This also serves as the 'A' leg of the ABC retrace to the upside. SPY target for A is around 142.
2. The Wolfe wave line meets the 23.6 fib retrace in the crimson area. This would be a good spot for B to stop. It also happens that B = 61.8 fib retrace of A at this spot. B should be around 140.90 or thereabouts.
3. From there C starts its move up to finish off at 76.4 fib of the WXY wave which is around 142.40.
4. It goes down again and either stops at Y or lower to finish the correction over the next 2-3 days giving my special indicator time to finish off with the downward pressure on the daily SPY chart.

I will be keenly following the progress and will update the charts with what I see.

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