Now, I am not a doomer gloomer. Being a Jackal, I live on scraps left behind by the wolves and try not become their next meal.
Having said this, it is clear that Europe will lead the world down this time. I don't think Ben will print in Sept. It is too close to the elections and will barely have any impact. Spain, Italy and others in Europe are too big to be 'too big to fail' so they will get what is due to them and with them, the rest of us.
Based on this premise, the following chart shows us close to finishing up the corrective wave to the upside since the bottom in March 2009. In EWT, corrections are zig-zag (5-3-5) or Flat (3-3-5). It is tough for me to say whether the previous downleg was a 3 wave or a 5 wave structure. Needless, we have a good 3 wave structure to the upside as presented in the chart. If it pans out as shown, we should top out at less than 144 on SPY. The downside should last at least well into 2014 while the world deals with the situation in Europe.
I am out of my long-term longs and am sticking with daytrading a few handles up or down on ES till this situation is sorted out.